Globalization

Ahmad Hussein Annan

International-Middle Eastern Policy

The French Plan to isolate Syria in order to control Lebanon and set political Feet there led to a big international Dilemma. The Fact that the pro Syria Forces have a democratic Right to block up every French action has been proved through an interior Lebanese dialog.

Background:

Every  well  educated knows the history of the French ambitions to seize the Syrian Lebanese coastal Area in exchange for the British Presence in the Gulf. This has been the Outcome of a historic English-French Agreement called Sikes Bico. The Agreement ended the French-English dispute over the Middle East. The French Portion was the Coastal Area of Lebanon and Syria (known as the Sham Land).

France was the first Country to break the Principles of the League of the Nations, when invaded Syria in 1920 . The Russian Revolution that had (1917) declared a global War against Imperialism helped the socialists and Communists to emerge and lead the Revolution against the Occupation Forces. Before Independence (1946) the French planted some latent and explosive Conflicts to make the Country dependent and trapped in Conflict even after the Independence. So they gave Al-musel (Northern Iraq) to the british in exchange for Deir-Al-Zor. They gave Iskandaron, diar Bakr and some other Territories to the Turks, claiming that they don't want to get involved in a conflict with the Turks, while the Vichy Regime set up by the Nazis (the Friends of the Turks) didn't seem to be Enemies of the Turks anyway. The French Separated Lebanon in the Year 1943, after they performed an immigration Strategy, of making Lebanon a Christian Country, and therefore guarantee a Similar Base beside the British Israel. In 1943 the Christians became 56% of the entire Lebanese Society.

(Going backward in History we find some similar Byzantine failed Plans, fought by the Arabic Tribes sent by abu Jaffar Al-mansur, and prevented from making Lebanon a western Base). Later Napoleon offered the so called Drouze a Country in Lebanon and southern Syria, but the Arabic Tribes refused and resisted the Map. Later they were offered an independent State by the Israelis and Americans, but Kamal Junblat informed the Arabic Neighbors. Abdulnasir called upon the Iraqis to deploy their Army in Syria, which made the Plan fail again. The mentioned French Adventure with the Douruz made it clear, that Christianity is not the Goal of the French, in sofar the Douruz have no relation to Christianity. But France who helped Israel invade the Arabic Land, has supplied its nuclear Reactor, as an Award for the Israeli Support in the War against Egypt (1956). Today the Christian became Minority in Lebanon. So they can not control the Country democratically. The only Way to control Lebanon is to create Allies against the Syrians, who were stupid enough to lose the Blossoms of their effort in helping Lebanon get independent. They were kicked out through the resolution 1959, after they became accused of having assassinated the PM Al-hariri.

Now every Syrian ally has been weakened and suspected of committing Treasons and selling the Statute to the claimed Syrian Killers. The French and other western Power hate to make new Statute elections, because it could deprive the Christians from their Privileges they had gotten when they were majority. So the contemporary President is Christian, and in order to elect one,two Thirds must be present in the parliamentary Elections. That has not been possible yet, because of boycotting the Meeting by the Oppositions. If  they elect without the opposition the President would be considered as illegitimate, and the Opposition will have the right to get sovereign in the south, which makes the French Strategy lose. The Importance of Lebanon is; for it borders Israel, it can be decisive in creating Wars and Peace. So the separation of Hezbollah in the South will drive the decisive Axis to the Shiites being loyal to Syria and Iran. But many Christian Lebanese would love to be separated from the South. Those who wish so don't understand, that they could lose the financial Support if they lose the strategic importance of being an Israel immediate Neighbor.

Why do the Americans help the French to set feet in Lebanon?

On the beginning of the road Map Policy, the Americans turned their back to the French interest in the Middle East. The French played the Napoleonian Chess Strategy, when they supported the Opposition led by the Syrians. The increase of Tension between Americans and Syrians guaranteed Isolation of Syria. In order to increase Pressure upon Syria the Americans had to response to the French Ambitions and helped Chirac Kick Bashars Army out of Lebanon.(going Backward we find the Americans giving the Syrian Army a green signal to enter Lebanon 1976, and in the Nineties again the Americans welcome a Syrian role in Lebanon, ending the pro French Militia led by Michael Aoun, who fled to France. The mentioned Militia came back after the Syrians angered the American Iraqi War engineers (which I consider as a big Mistake. had the Syrians kept the relation to the Americans in Tact, the French and other Acteurs would have been out of Game up to Date, which means a gone down in the Colonial Gospodarstva numbers). The Americans offered a promising Plan in the Nineties.

Background:

By the End of the cold War 1989, the Americans worked on developing and expanding the liberal Capitalism. They financed Reforms World Wide. The opposition to capitalism remain latent and explosive in Asia, where China enjoy a Veto right, and became a Member of the WTO. In order to stop its revolution and other red and differently colored Revolutions from Expanding, the liberal Forces had to work hardly on solving the Disputes in many Areas across the World, for Dispute could create Sympathy for Revolutions, and attract big Powers to go back to the old Games of showing different Muscles. Of a great Importance is the Middle East, where Oil occupy an international Priority. In order to make the Middle East a peaceful Market, the Americans signed up several Trade Agreements  (free market Zones) with the Gulf Countries. But to invest and make Investors attracted, the Countries have to end the Arabic – Israeli Conflict. To compete or overcome the Chinese exports, the big Industries must send Companies over See to invest with Cheaper Labor Forces, which would help the competition and serve all. The American offers appeared to be more open and less conditioned than the French and other European Markets with national Gestures. The French and Russians had nothing to offer to the Middle East in the Eighties, except some political support for Dictators in the third World in exchange for narrow Market Access based on Blackmail and other Dirty Business, and I find it very hard to browse the Events and secret Business in details.

The Peace Failure didn't has been harming all, except China and Russia who have sold some cold War Strategy ( Corrupt Weapons on the one Hand, and ill Products on the other). In order to attract Dictators the mentioned Powers have responded to the call of creating a multi-poles World, and founded what is called Shanghai Alliance, declaring it as a counter Pole of the US led Alliance. This made it necessary for the western Powers to redeem the past Marshalian Strategy of financing pro western forces. But France with a Nostalgia to the Past (think the French Colonial Dictionary written by Pierre Rio, and some nostalgic Poems also

http://sebah.com/poesies.htm

 Piperred and appetitive Definitions

http://www.arabesquespress.org/international/le-petit-robert-2007-french-dictionarys-colonization-definition-fans-debate-272709

Have never given up its Imperialistic Strategy. Hand on the UN, another on the EU and third on its Own Business. The EU was proposed by the French politician Josef (1950) as the future challenger of the Anglo-Saxons. Disappointed have been the French at the point that many European Countries are loyal to the Americans who freed them from the soviet Turtle.

The sworn modern France has never given up seeking its Past in the Middle East. Particularly Lebanon has been the Country of Destination….. After a few Years of Harm has been done to the Syrian Economy through pressure and no way of Return in the Syrian American Relation, the French understood that Syria is a decisive one. To gain Lebanon you have to restore Dialog with Syria. The Pressure and Threat that has burdened Assad through out the Years (because of Al-hariri Case ) might have prospered in bowing Syria to the French Demand. Yesterday the French and Syrian foreign Ministers met in Turkey to discuss the new French Business. Jean David ( dawod if you want) and Claude Giant are the right envoys for the new French Mission. The Motto is; No foreign intervention in Lebanon, but years ago (when Lahhoud presidency was lengthened through a Lebanese democratic decision) the Motto was; French Intervention. At same Time the Syrians have been witnessing a few French-Syrian cooperative Projects on scientific and cultural Levels. i.e. The Sikes Bico Plan to subject Syria and Lebanon away from the Anglo-Saxons became real.

What I want to say (in the name of the Free Syrians): We call upon the Government to end that blackmailing Policy and open up the Country through restoration of the American Syrian Relation. It lies in our economic Interest to liberate our Policy and mobilize our Economy for the WTO Membership.

To get rid of the Blackmails and end the restoration of the newly mastered francophonic Partition and political exploitation, the Syrian politicians should do their best in reopening the Country to the world. As a liberal oppositionist I proudly declare the refusal of the  resumed French- Syrian dialog on an isolationistic Basis. In order to perform better, we should make the peace process our main Strategy, and improve the relation to the United States, making it possible for us to create our strong Middle Eastern Market, and end the international Middle eastern political Bazar for good.

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11.11.2007

10.11.2007

France will stand by the US , Sarkozy vows.

After decades of foggy French Stance on the US Middle east Policy, the Visit of the newly elected French President cleared out the suspicions over a minimum Ground of  a supposed common Strategy of the Rivals.

On the first day of his US rally, Mr. Sarkozy declared; In times of hardship we stand together to defend Democracy. Why not? It is not the first Time that both Countries recognize the fact, that rivalry and differences don't exceed the general Security Lines of the western capitalism. Such a policy had been historically a traditional US. In Vietnam the Americans interfered to control an escalation caused by the French Colonial rule, and today, the USA is helping France in its Lebanese Project (loves me loves my dog the English say) .The losers in such an Alliance are how ever Arabs, whose leaders have never proved any sense of realism in dealing with the international politics. Some CNN Analysts believe that Sarkozy wants to make Use of the contemporary Bush Position before leaving the white house. In fact, the Visit of some Conservative or liberal leaders like Sarkozy and the Chancellor Merkl, might have a positive effect upon the republican Election Campaigns. It is also a good Sign of  a better French Position operating within the Framework of Democratization and human rights policy. It is not critical for a country like to work protective, when political and economic Interests are in lack for, but within a right and just UN framework, responsive to a revolutionary or evolutionary international need for Democracy and Freedom. The past French Politics had not been satisfying the mentioned international Principles. In his assault against the Spanish Rule, Napoleon claimed; he wants to free the Spaniards, but after he succeeded, he pointed his brother Joseph as the new King of Spain. By the Way, Napoleon has been celebrated as the absolute Hero and Emblem of the French political Entity. Each Year, the French take to the Streets to celebrate his Birth Day.

The French relation to the republican had been at its highest range in the early US Stages. In order to defeat England, the French sent some Soldiers to fight in the American War of Independence. But later, tension arose when the Americans didn’t respect the Common defense Treaty, which I consider as the first Superman Tendency ( Uebermensch in a niezschian sense) in the liberal US Politics of a liberal Will.

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On the Margin of Sarkozy Visit:

In a TV Discussion(The four dimensions 11.11. 2007, Alhurra Channel) on the US- Pakistani relation, the Guests expressed Pessimism over the new Era. An Expert of an US Peace Institute believed; Since 2003, the Priority in the US Politics is the Stability instead of Democracy in the US- relation to the world. But the Guests ( which are mostly Arabic Experts) ignored the Stance of the US on Democracy in Lebanon, and the Pressure put Upon Rulers World wide i.e. Burma, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Serbia, Gulf Countries etc. In a Phone Call Mr. Bush told the Pakistani Leader Pervez Musharraf to give up his army Post and hold elections soon, which can be considered as a clear US Message. Also in a press Conference with Merkl(11.11.2007), Mr. Bush said;

Our Message is clear. we share with Musharraf a common Goal on Terror combat, but also believe that Freedom and democracy are the best way to get people work and live together.

Between Dictators, who are unable to combat Terror, and Democracy, that may bring Extremism and Fundamentalism to office, the US face a great Challenge (In according to some alhurra Experts). That is to say that the greatest challenge is Fundamentalism. It has been the cause of every evil in the middle east. The international Stance on Democratization has been working slowly in last time because of the Rise of Fundamentalism and extremism across the Middle East. The Mistake is that Dictators share a common Goal (temporarily at least) in resisting the international democratization Policy.

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13.12.2007

In his Visit to the united states Mr. Sarkozy expressed concern about  the French-US relation. Sarkozy affirmed; in the Times of Hardship, France stand by the united States. A promising indicator of a better  Era in the French Politics. The relation between France and the United States began with the American War of independence. The French supported the Americans with soldiers and Experts to fight the British empire. But as the Americans didn't respect  the treaty on common defense (Showing the first superman or "Übermensch" Tendency ), the French became anti-American. In fact, the times of  Hardship are already behind the Administration. The French  were opposition to the invasion of Iraq (2003), but became ally later (words without considerable deeds indeed). The later presidency Dispute in Lebanon made the French believe in the US, because they can't perform in Lebanon without Support. Their foreign minister has failed to solve the Crisis, and the neighbors look back in anger to what has been done, and seem to be interested in improving the relation to the United States (which could lead to a lower interest  about a French Role in the region). Anyway; Sarkozy played the good Boy, insofar the Peace and prosperity , the democratization and commitment to human rights, the Terror Combat and the security of Capitalism, all need a cooperative and allied western World. Many believe that the USA could have turned away from spreading Democracy in the third World ( for the Choice between a democracy  empowering Terrorists or Fundamentalists, and a dictator ready for dialog, cause disorder inside the liberal Societies). But between democratically elected Extremists and  dialog Dictators, there is still a third choice,  which is more welcome and can be legitimated internationally- namely  a liberal Dictator, who dictate freedom and rights.  in defending the last, each government is and should  simply be a dictator. In order to perform internationally in that direction, the United Nations should agree to every Democratization Effort. Sovereignty can not be used as an umbrella for those who violate the rights ( Banki moon and his forerunner declared).  Hitherto; the opposing Powers to efforts running in that direction are the Fundament of every resisting Evil Axis world Wide.

Ahmad Annan

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15.01.2008

Bush Visit to the middle East has been unwelcome by Anti-American Arabs, who believe; that such initiatives usually serve the Interest of Israel ! What is the truth of such expectations? And how do our Anti-American Streams come to their suspicious and desperate Verdicts? Rather are their Verdicts derived inferently from real and accessible past or present Events? It maybe helpful to browse some historic highlights in the American Position to the Israeli stance:

1929 , the US Congress passed a bill to prohibit the Immigration of the Jews to the United States, claiming; they don't fulfill the Fitness Criteria for Immigration.

1948, America Admits Israel as A State. In the mid Fifties; the United States refused to offer Weapons to Israel.

1956, the Americans stood against the Troika War ( launched by; France, England and Israel) on Egypt.

By the End of the Fifties, the socialist Movement of Abdulnasir ( a former president of Egypt) and his open Doors to the Soviets alarmed the Americans and attracted them to Israel.

1967, the weapons, with which Israel occupied the Arabic Territories were still French and British mostly.( hence, the foundation of Israel had been an European project, kick started by the British, blessed by Austria, Switzerland and many other Euro brothers, and armed by the French and English at its early Stages).

In the Sixties, the Arabic-Israeli Conflict became increasingly cardinal in US Cold War Strategy).1973, America Rescued Israel from becoming perished by the armed Egyptian and Syrian Forces. Israel had been seen as an American and western ally in the War against the soviets, and against every ideological, military or strategic threat to the Oil Countries. The American mediation made Israel (the country that once bears a Map claiming the right of a Promised Land from Euphrates to the Nile) withdraw from the occupied Egyptian Land peacefully (in exchange for a political Turn over).

1980, the western World (including some Arabic Countries) supported the Islamic Brotherhood organization to create political change in Syria ( the Country that refused Camp David Treaty, and signed a treaty on common Defense with the soviet Union). The Americans failed to create another Afghanistan in Syria, and the failure of the mentioned Organization made Israel revenge through invading Lebanon and bombarding the legion 49, which took part in combating the Islamic Brotherhood Organization and destroyed its headquarter in Hama.(The Israeli Invasion was covered by the US Navy).

1989, the Fall of the Soviet Sponsor. 1991, the relation between USA and Syria improved, because of the Syrian Participation in the War on Iraq (the Country that tried to create an alternative for the collapsed Soviet Union). George Bush offered an open Sponsorship to the Freedom process between Syrian and Israel, and promised the Syrian and Lebanese technical, industrial and economic help. Arabic Extremists ( who don't admit the legitimacy of Israel) and Israeli Extremists ( who don't admit any rights for the Arabs) blocked the negotiations( the mentioned forces use to be anti-globalization warriors, and operate outside the international Law).The international rivals encouraged the extremists from both side, mostly because some foreign Countries don't want to lose their War Business. Although, 1991,1994,1998 were high lights in the peace negotiation. Whenever the Americans call for peace negotiation, the Plates Lickers surround the Talk Table, speaking on behalf of this or that, and to some part, try to hunt the negotiation Effort and political Propaganda. Doubtlessly; The Only Country that may create peace in the region is the United States, due to its great military and economic power, but in fact, many countries and even small forces have the power to destroy the peace in the region.

The Embargo on Iraq became an additional Instrument. The cost of the imposed sanctions were children Lives mostly.  From that Misery, some rivals made profit and developed Business, each time the Security Council review the Iraqi Case, they supported the poverty of the Iraqis through catching at the sanctions. They even refused the intervention and the removal of Saddam Hussein (Making of a holy Hindus Cow), but neither wanted the sanctions to be eased, nor adhered to the Embargo Rules.

2003, the Americans ended the stagnation. They removed Saddam Hussein and brought the so called Road Map. The Message sounded not so bad for the Arabs. The Statues of Saddam Hussein were insulted and destroyed by his own People. Example; the Nasr Square. The international opposition to the change encouraged Insurgency and Terror. The Challenge the American faced in Iraq made them forget about the rest of the plan sometimes. From the new Misery, the democrats made Use in the elections. The Pressure of the War turned the republicans away from some promises they made, which gave the Democrats the chance to plagiarize some of the baffled plans, promising to extract the Thistles and end the pain. They wined the Congress and are running strongly for the presidency. At this very decisive Turn in the US Policy, Bush came to the Middle East. The plan to create a Palestinian State, has been seen as an atonement, but a republican elections Stimulus package also. The Two States Idea comply with the studies results of various American Institutions. Experts like ; Flynt lereth (New American Foundation), Robert Pape ( Cato Institute) backer Hamilton ( CC) etc. view the conflict of Iraq as related the Palestinian Crisis.

Bush was the first President, who forced the departure of the Settlers (under Sharon), whose departure was necessary for founding a primary Existence of the Palestinian State. The completion of the plan, to clear up Ghazza and the west Bank from the Settlers has failed, due to the rise of Hamas, the Org that doesn't admit Israel and is widely seen as a terrorist Organization. The Peace Effort has caused Sharon his Health, but Robins his life before. The Visit of Mr. Bush mid Rockets fired on Israel by Hamas Militants destroyed the Visit and the entire Plan. At the press conference Olmert turned to Mr. Bush and said: there will be no peace unless terror stops. Some believe that the Israelis provoked Hamas to fire Rockets in order to escape the State plan. But in Fact, Hamas bears the responsibility at the End. Even non-profiting or marginalized foreign Governments wish that Hamas do so. Days before the arrival of Mr. Bush, the Exiled Hamas Leaders appealed on Ghazza to refuse Bush mediation. By the Way; Hamas stood by Saddams Regime from the very beginning of the war, condemning Arabic leaders, who don't stick to Saddams Loins.

History shows; that the more the American Interest be threatened, the important Israel be, and the more the Arabic-American dialog improves, the less Israel be.

C1.The failed Arabic Strategy lurks behind the Israeli power Growth

C2.Arabic Extremism contribute to the Israeli Extremism and vice versa.

On the other Hand; Israel has been occupying the Arabic Land, which made the pro soviet Socialism win Sympathy, and the Arabic Nationalism became the instrument of survival for the Arabic Neighbors. The power Struggle legitimized the declare of Emergency State and led to the protection of dictatorship. It allows the destruction of every liberal and democratic Movement through inserting them easily into the Basket of endangering Zionism and Imperialism.

This Lack for Freedom and Democracy in the Arabic World has been instrumentalized and utilized by the Israelis, who see Democratization and local freedom as the prerequisite condition for the withdrawal of the Arabic Territories (even though the Jews didn't come originally to the region to democratize but rather to occupy). The Arabic regimes turn the Ball back to the Israelis when make peace, reforms and the End of the emergency Rules depending on the Withdrawal of the Arabic Land, and even a change in the Israeli pre-declared Goals.

On the other Hand, when the ruling Regimes be labeled as Terrorists, they catch at the chairs and stick more at their positions, in order to avoid being judged or led to an international Court. Example; when Hassan Nasr Allah (The leader of Hizbullah) be described as terrorist, and see what is happened to Saddam Hussein, he considers delivering his Weapons and adhering to the westernized Lebanese Government a suicidal, if not the ticket for the detain. Such situation makes it easy to blackmail him and keep him open to every anti-American and Israeli Call. This is why we see in the Anti-Western Alliance so many Groups, with different Ideologies and Background. Communists, Islamists and Baathists joint each other in the Lebanese and Iraqi War.

Vice Versa; Americans and Taleban were allied in the war against the Soviets. This polemic leads inferently to the Fact; that the occupation and Colonialism has been the fuel of the modernly Growing Tyranny and wild regimes in the Arabic world. At same Time, the mentioned Situation gives the western Interventions a formal legitimacy at least. The ideological Expansion of the Iranian revolution benefit from the Israeli refusal to withdraw from the Arabic Land, while the western world see in the withdrawal a big political propaganda for the ruling regimes and the resisting anti-western Forces ( A growing Evil out of control). How to get out of such evil Complex? This question has been the focus of many Conflict Institutes. Questions like; how to obliterate or combat Arabic Extremism, without wiping out the Israeli Fundamentalism? To end the struggle of the Arabic regimes and establish a peaceful Arabic governments without ending the occupation? Impose Law and order without ending the foreign plunder amid colonial hunger? Open the region to the west without ending the flow of the weapons, settlers and napoleonistic diplomacy? Etc.

Those questions are big Challenge to every peaceful mediation. In some cases we see some western Governments working with the ruling dynasties, in some others some others work with the oppositions against some governments. Many think about how to make business of  the conflict and consider the dispute Settlement as an End for some important entrepreneurs. Generally; the anti-peace Streams range from Nazism and colonial Individualism to Communism, religious extremism and far left Socialism.

The biggest Enemy of the Arabs are Arabic Streams, with a holy Concept, who give reasons to wars and interventions (if not occupation).

History shows a good Role for the United States in the region, and it is the Arabs who decide; whether the American role serve them ( in form of preserving mutual Interest) or not.After a meeting with Mr. Bush Blair declares; we believe that the middle eastern nations want to be an effective power in the international community, if that wouldn't be the case, we want them to be defined as an opposition to.

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Taking Mr. Bush by His Words:

03.09.2006

G.W.Bush: Every one is trying to stop the success of democracy in Iraq. Iraq lies in the center of the war on Terror ( so he set Democracy in relation to peace)

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11.09.2006.

Terrorists fear the power of Freedom. Terror Streams come to Iraq to stop the process of Democracy.

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23.10.2006

It is our interest that the Forces of moderation prevail in Iraq

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24.01.2007

It is not a clashes of arms, but an ideological struggle

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08.011.2007. Bush calls upon musharraf to end emergency and declare Elections in Pakistan

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09.01.2008

(Bush Visit to Israel IBB TV Dedica)

Mr. Bush: We stand for the Universality of Freedom, and we seek Peace through out the Middle East. It is a historic moment and opportunity, for a freedom based on Rights. (in this Mr. Bush view Democracy and Freedom as the way of preserving the American Interest, and an immunity against every anti- western Rise, which is in Harmony to our ambitions to create a just society)

 

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30.01.2008

The Assumption; that the US Middle East Policy is an American national security Issue, has become publically the Criteria of the arabic-american dialog after September 11th (though it has been implicatively the case since the beginning of the 20th century). When we speak about the US middle east relation, we focus necessarily on the US defense Strategy. Some believe ; that the economic Aspect was more important before September 11th, and those oversee the fact; that the terror attacks are a greater challenge for the US economy. There is neither economic prosperity, nor investment attraction without securing property and guaranteeing Safety. The State of the Union Address (2004) Mr. Bush began referring to the defense Issue. The second Issue was regime Change .(Wednesday, 21 January, 2004- Quotation: Our greatest responsibility is the active defense of the American people. The killing has continued in Bali, Jakarta, Casablanca, Riyadh, Mombasa, Jerusalem, Istanbul, and Baghdad. The terrorists continue to plot against America and the civilized world. And by our will and courage, this danger will be defeated. America is on the offensive against the terrorists who started this war. As part of the offensive against terror, we are also confronting the regimes that harbor and support terrorists. As democracy takes hold in Iraq, the enemies of freedom will do all in their power to spread violence and fear.. The killers will fail, and the Iraqi people will live in freedom. We also hear doubts that democracy is a realistic goal for the greater Middle East, where freedom is rare. As long as the Middle East remains a place of tyranny, despair, and anger, it will continue to produce men and movements that threaten the safety of America and our friends. So America is pursuing a forward strategy of freedom in the greater Middle East. We will challenge the enemies of reform, confront the allies of terror, and expect a higher standard from our friends.. We have no desire to dominate, no ambitions of empire. Our aim is a democratic peace, a peace founded upon the dignity and rights of every man and woman. End of the Quotation). In 2008, the speech focused on what has been done, leaving a freedom legacy for the Future. Somehow , we can't separate between affording Freedom and security on the one hand, and economic development on the other. Many short sighted people don't understand the symbolic and simple meaning of Freedom in Bush Speech. It is in fact  a symmetric Message, and an indicator of an economic and political Program. Idiots see in Bush Freedom Speech amid genocides in Iraq and else where an ambiguous Message. Practically, it is being the Message of every ambitious defense and development Strategy. Much more, it is a Life Struggle ( Some quoted Highlights of Mr. Bush last State of the Union Address 2008:   From expanding opportunity to protecting our country, we have made good progress.  Yet we have unfinished business before us, and the American people expect us to get it done.In the work ahead, we must be guided by the philosophy that made our Nation great.  As Americans, we believe in the power of individuals to determine their destiny and shape the course of history.  building a prosperous future for our citizens also depends on confronting enemies abroad and advancing liberty in troubled regions of the world. The advance of liberty is opposed by terrorists and extremists -- evil men who despise freedom, despise America, and aim to subject millions to their violent rule. Since September 11, we have taken the fight to these terrorists and extremists.  We will stay on the offense, we will keep up the pressure, and we will deliver justice to the enemies of America.We are engaged in the defining ideological struggle of the 21st century.  The terrorists oppose every principle of humanity and decency that we hold dear. In Iraq, the terrorists and extremists are fighting to deny a proud people their liberty and to establish safe havens for attacks across the world.  One year ago, our enemies were succeeding in their efforts to plunge Iraq into chaos.  So we reviewed our strategy and changed course.  We launched a surge of American forces into Iraq.  And we gave our troops a new mission:  Work with Iraqi forces to protect the Iraqi people, pursue the enemy in its strongholds, and deny the terrorists sanctuary anywhere in the country. Our enemies in Iraq have been hit hard.  They are not yet defeated, and we can still expect tough fighting ahead.  Our objective in the coming year is to sustain and build on the gains we made in 2007, while transitioning to the next phase of our strategy.  American troops are shifting from leading operations, to partnering with Iraqi forces, and, eventually, to a protective overwatch mission. The mission in Iraq has been difficult and trying for our nation.  But it is in the vital interest of the United States that we succeed.  A free Iraq will deny al-Qaida a safe haven.  A free Iraq will show millions across the Middle East that a future of liberty is possible.  And a free Iraq will be a friend of America, a partner in fighting terror, and a source of stability in a dangerous part of the world. By contrast, a failed Iraq would embolden extremists, strengthen Iran, and give terrorists a base from which to launch new attacks on our friends, our allies, and our homeland.  We are also standing against the forces of extremism in the Holy Land, where we have new cause for hope.  Palestinians have elected a president who recognizes that confronting terror is essential to achieving a state where his people can live in dignity and at peace with Israel.  Israelis have leaders who recognize that a peaceful, democratic Palestinian state will be a source of lasting security.  This month in Ramallah and Jerusalem, I assured leaders from both sides that America will do, and I will do, everything we can to help them achieve a peace agreement that defines a Palestinian state by the end of this year.  The time has come for a Holy Land where a democratic Israel and a democratic Palestine live side-by-side in peace).

Mr. Bush Stance on Democracy and Freedom in the Middle East seems to be welcome by every normally thinking Person. Democracy and Freedom are also the only long range Criteria of combating Terrorism, achieving security and improving economic Prosperity. What is disputed in the Address is the old- new position on Hizbollah. (Mr.Bush: Iran is funding and training militia groups in Iraq, supporting Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon, and backing Hamas' efforts to undermine peace in the Holy Land). The Hizbollah Party has been labeled by the Americans and Europeans as a terror producing Power ! although The Party Leader has never called for perpetrations and Assassinations. We know no Case, in which the Shi'ite Party Leadership issued a Statement allowing the Killing of Lebanese Christians, Druze or Sunnis. The Party has never led any operation inside or outside Lebanon. Mr. Hassan Nasrallah (the Party leader) condemn Terror Actions and call for interior and exterior Dialogs. The only Field of Hizbolah Operations has been the Lebanese- Israeli Border. The Actions of the Party against the Israeli Army acquire legitimacy through the international justice ( such as  Resolution 338 , Resolution 242 , Resolution 524 , and Resolution 390 ) which demand an Israeli withdrawal from the occupied Territories, the return of the Exiled (since the so called Calamity 1948/1967), admitting Bethlehem as the Capital of Palestine etc. The last Hizbollah War on Israel is being seen (by the so called Loyalists) as illegitimate, because the War decision was not approved by the Lebanese Parliament, But the unauthorized local actions (by the Lebanese Government) still enjoy international Authorization through the mentioned Resolutions. Whether the Operation may be considered as violence of the Lebanese Sovereignty or not is the other Aspect of the evaluation. In a Country like Lebanon, where Israel has been violating the Soil and sky without any counter governmental Actions, the Party claim the right for independent Self-defense. The July Rockets, which hit Civilians may be considered as Terror Action, but the Israeli Rockets didn't  have mercy upon the Civilians also. Human rights Groups reported injuries from both Side. The civilian damage in southern Lebanon was much greater (in according to some European Human Rights Watch Groups) that the few hit Walls in Haifa. Given the mentioned Facts, the US and European Position on Hizbollah is exaggerating. Telling the result of his Experiences in China, Russia and the rest of the World, the German Expert Peter Scholl Latour, (on which the German mostly rely in analyzing political Culture) considers Hizbollah (in a ZDF-TV Talk 18.01.2008) as one of the Challenges for the European Culture (beside different American Churches, Chinese Confucianism "Die neue Welt Macht", Russian Instability etc ). Well Shooting. But being a Challenge is not a Terror Act. Like Many Oligarchic Mintages, and some German Nationalists, Mr. Latour  Classify the World as a geographic fate, independent from Time and Content.

Mr. Bush seems to be (to a certain extent) right when says; Hamas' efforts to undermine peace in the Holy Land. But he neglects the Jewish Extremists, who form a similar Challenge, catching at a lying Talmud (The Killers of Robin).

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14.02.2008
(The assassination of a top Hezbollah Leader Imad Mughniyah)

The Background In Brief:
To make scientific Use of the mentioned Assassination, I am going to explain (ex-post facto) some of the very Tangled Questions about Lebanon and many other related Topics.
Mr.Mughniyah became trained in Camps administered by the leading Palestinian Organization Fatah. joint Amal later, and finally Hezbollah (by the beginning of the eighties).
He became famous after the Israeli Invasion of Lebanon (1982). In according to some western resources, the man is accused of having bombarded the US Marines, the French peace keeping Forces, a cultural Center in Argentine and the Israeli Embassy there also.
Some of his Actions are considered as ordinary War Actions, some others are viewed as War Crimes (or Terror Acts in other words).
The Assumption, that the actions of a soldier may be treated as a pre-premise of concluding a terror Leadership or Ideology is logically Wrong. In so many Wars, the French, English and US Soldiers have committed War Crimes, some of them have been arrested, some others were innocent, and some remain under police Custody today.
So the Appraisal; that the Leadership of the Party is Terrorist, (due to mere assumed and not concluded terror Actions committed by some individuals) can not be logically adopted.
Hassan Nasr Allah (The Party Leader) denied any involvement of Mr. Maghniyah in Terror Actions, and described the Accusations as an Attempt to Notorize and corrupt the Biography of a contesting Soldier.
In according to the Ideology of Islam (By which the Party Fighters clap justifying their Struggle), the killing of Children and innocent Civilians is a War Crime.
Through a small focus on the Case we have concluded the following Judgment Errors:
1. We may not deprive an inductive conclusion from a single Case, and make it the Basis of Judging an entire Leadership.
2. The Man has not been interrogated or investigated by an ordinary Judge, who concluded Terrorism in his strife.
3.There are neither an international legal Resolution or Authorization, nor a jurisprudential Verdict, that endorsed  the Assassination

4. A part from who and what Mr. Mughniyah was, the Assassination violated the Sovereignty of a UN-Member Country.
5. There (In Israel) are Free War Crimes. Think the Massacre of 8000 Palestinian Civilians in Sabra and Shatila (within only 30 minutes in Lebanon).
6. The Psychological Circumstances in a War, in which there are no Power Balance between Conflict Parties.
A Party (Israel) possess the Strongest Weapons in the World, facing primitively armed Militias, with no access right to Armament. Such psychological Circumstances may play a role in evaluating the Nature of the Crime and the Sentence or punishment.
It is Strategically obvious, that in order to maintain Peace or reach a real and constant Dispute settlement, a balance of Power is needed.
The hard Line is not an Arabic Pan (because of lack for Weapons). While with Diplomacy, the Arabic resistance Forces have been unable to have the rights mentioned in  the UN resolutions 524, 338, 242 etc. From Experiences we know; that the Israeli did not agree to robin Peace Effort. They killed him. The contemporary Government might have been understanding the necessity for Peace, but don't dare to touch the traditional red Lines, which are originally not designed by the UN, but by the Talmud and the holy Books. The only Way to make them concede to a Peaceful Settlement is to achieve a strategic Balance. The Power to threat them in their Settlements is the Basis for every possible Peace negotiations. This Power is militarily denied for the Arabs, Whose dictatorial Rule have been the claimed reason of the  Suppression and Denial.
The Western World has been trying to impose legacy over the Arabic Parties, issuing Promises and virtual peaceful Paradises, amid a flow of Israeli Extremists, who possess great Power and are away from every possible threat.

The State Of Hezbollah:
The Party has emerged from the international and local Struggle. As a Researcher; I  neither claim that the party is perfect, nor exclude the possibility of concluding terror actions might have been committed by some of its Members (No Body is perfect).
To anatomize the Case and discuss the legitimacy of the Party, we have to shed light on the Lebanese political State first;
The Lebanese Statute appeared in 1928 (under the French occupation), and became amended in the forties and eighties. (Democracy and human rights have been liberally and even internationally perceived as the Criteria of Judging the Legitimacy of the Rules and Systems). At its independence (1943) , the Christian Society guised 56% of the Lebanese Population. Today the Christians have become Minority ( The Majority is led by Hezbollah today). But the numeral Majority is not considered by the Lebanese Statute. Democracy in Lebanon is not the known conventional  legislations and institutions. A reduction from numeral State to voluntarism is being the Case in the Lebanese Parliament and Government. That is to say; the representation is not formed in according to the number of Voters, but in according to the religious Groups, tending to be an idealistic in the Core (A sort of religious Racism, called agreemental Democracy).
As the Muslims became majority in the Fifties, muttered disgust was heard clearly under Kameel Chamoon. Later, the Druze revolted, and the President sought American Support claiming that a communistic revolution is about to emerge and overthrow the Government. The CIA offered intelligence help, and tried to build a Lebanese Muchabarat ( Intelligence Apparatus). in 1976 a broader civic War broke out, in which the Lebanese Christians became at high Risk. They were challenged by the Muslims and other Palestinian  Groups, who were about to seize Power and Massacre the Maronites (Lebanese Christians). The Syrians received a green signal( In according to the American intelligence resources) to deploy  their army there, and prevent Mass Murder.
The traditional Statute, in according to which the Presidential Post must be reserved for the Christians remained in act under the Syrian Occupation, and in order to keep the Lebanese Unity in tact, Hezbollah kept silent about the Statute.

Israel was unhappy about the Syrian presence in Lebanon, and has financed (if not founded) some counter Militias (like the one led by saad Haddad or antoin Lahd). Iraq stood by some Anti-Syrian Groups also (like Michael Aun).
1982, the Israelis invaded Lebanon. They stormed the region under American military and intelligence Coverage. So the actions of  the assassinated Mughniyah against the Marines had been considered as conventional War Strategy. The Syrian War Casualties ranged from 6000 to 7000 units. After 1982, Hezbollah became a Syrian Goal. They trained and sponsored the Organization of the Party. An Effort, that led to a forced Israeli Withdrawal from the south.

(from 1976 to 2000,  the Area, in which Hezbollah emerged, has been a Sky and Soil for the Israeli War Machines.)
The supported Militias by Israel immigrated to Tel Aviv, where they lived with no rights at all, because the Israeli Law doesn't allow the Immigration of the Arabs.
By the beginning of the Nineties, the Participation of the Syrians in the Liberation of Kuwait, improved the American- Syrian relation. They allowed the Syrians to destroy the Army of Aun, and have the upper Hand in Lebanon. A peace negotiation between Syria and Israel became sponsored by the Americans also.

The Invasion of Iraq 2003, produced Tension in the relation to the neighboring Regime in Damascus. The sneaking Mujahidins over the Syrian Borders angered the Americans. They made a deal with the opposing French to kick the Syrian Army out of Lebanon in exchange for cooperation. The pro-French Aun went back from his Exile to Lebanon again, and Anti-syrian Prisoners and war Criminals (like Ja'a'ja) became amnestied and released (It was doubtlessly the unwise Syrian Policy, which led to the misery in the bilateral Dialog. The only possible excuse is being the Confusion caused by the Invasion). An Anti-Syrian and Hezbollah Government became formed. Hezbollah remained silent about the unconventional Lebanese Democracy. The Party was politically protected and supported under the prime Minister Alhariri and the last Pro-Syria President Emil Lahhoud.
The renewal for Lahhoud, and the Assassination of the PM R.Alhariri (who distanced himself lately from the Syrian Business in Lebanon), made the Sunni Elites
Believe; that the Syrians could be the Assassins.
After Lahhoud left office 2008, The angered Lebanese stood before Elections. The Anti-Syrians want to elect an anti-Syrian President, which would not tolerate Hezbollah also. Hezbollah realized, that his absence in the parliamentary presidential nomination may block the election of such a potential Threat.(the presence of two thirds is a basic presidential election Condition in according to the Lebanese Law). So Hezbollah and the Party Allies keep absent since then, which push the Tension upward.

A breath muting Pandora Doors:
The Election of an anti-Hezbollah President could lead to a big Crisis. If the President will agree to fully authorize  an international tribunal against Syria, strip Hezbollah from  its Weapons and dissolve the armed Groups, Israel will invade the south to hunt the Veterans, and Syria will be in a relatively State of War. If Hezbollah refuses the Disarmament, the President may ask for UN support. Foreign Forces will flow gladly into Lebanon, and the good Brother Israel will break from the south. Syria and its Lebanon Allies will possibly interfere, Iran will attack from the East, and the peace Dialog will be managed on a topsy-turvy Level again.
C1. The political state of the Lebanese Statute is abnormal
C2. The Parties concede but don't believe really in the System
C3. The international community is trying to create a legitimate War through a good Game names " Lebanon"
Since Syria withdrew from Lebanon, the Growth indicator has been sinking. Before Syria withdrew from Lebanon the Growth Rate was 7% ( President Assad provided free electric City and fuel to Lebanon. However, without consulting the poor Syrian parliament, who never says no anyway).
After the Withdrawal the Growth Conjuncture became 1% in 2005, minus 1% in 2006 and 2% in 2007 (in according to the PM Fu'ad Alsaniora speaking life on Future TV 16.02.2008). While the general Lebanon Dept became 50 milliard US Dollars, which made Lebanon through Paris1, Paris2 and Paris3 a natural French Horse. The best Lebanese People
( from the modern Founder Rafik Alhariri up to walid Ido and Mughniyeh have left, and the rest seem to have their departure baggage hung already on the shoulders, if the Lebanese Democracy continues rallying on the same trajectory)

The Scene in the Martyr's Square

The Scene on the opposite Side


20.08.2008

Marking the 5th Anniversary of the Iraq War, the US President George W Bush reaffirm his commitment to Democracy in the Middle East. The Protesting Citizens consist mostly of Gays and anti-globalization Movements.The democratic Nominees go in Opposition to.


16. 07. 2008

Focusing on the last French initiative (the Mediterranean Union) we stood before open question about the background and motivations. The Terminology (Mediterranean Union) sounds for many ambiguous. The France Meeting was attended by over 43 Countries, many of them are not Mediterranean , and stand United under the some other Unions Flags (like the African and European Unions. Some Publish Studies say:

Establishing a free- trade

area with the southern

Mediterranean region is the

centerpiece of the European

Union’s new Mediterranean

strategy. Strong adjustment

and reform efforts by the

countries of the region will

be essential for the strategy’s

success.

The mentioned Strategy has been a US Strategy also. But the USA (As well as the international Institutions) see no future for Trade and economic Investments without Peace, and the last can not be achieved through a formal and badly studied Mediterranean Union for sure. The Union comprise the EU States and all the countries on the Mediterranean Rim, including members of the Euromediterranean Partnership. Members are: Albania, Algeria, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus ,Czech Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Jordan,  Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Malta, Mauritania, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Palestinian Territories, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey and the United Kingdom( Libya is an Observer State). Many of the mentioned Countries are not Mediterranean. But that is not the only ambiguity. The political Analysis of the Union makes it easy to conclude, that the Union jumped already over the traditional economic Partnership, ignoring the Arabic-Israeli Conflict, and trying to put a mere syntax Plan to formally  Economic Structures, which hide some different ambitions and backgrounds. Some synchronizing Theaters are the behind Doors running Turkish Peace Mediation and the pretended victorious Hezbollah Captured Exchange Symptom. This self Service Unity Membership seems to be the hottest soup ever prepared to overlap the Middle Eastern Challenges. The Unity could be useful, if the political Ground was enough mobilized.

Mr. Sarkozy Visits to the United States and Israel made many Analysts believe; that the new French Politics is heading in the right direction, to create international Consensus. They believe that the Mediterranean Unity is a further Product of that political Turn. SOme would think that such international Integrations would bring the arising Chinese or other political dangers alike under control. But Studies of the traditional French History make Observers careful and suspicious about the French political Understanding of the Region.


The Next President and the Middle East by Daniel Levy New american Foundation

The road map

The U.S. Department of State on the Road Map

 

The Great Middle East Peace Process Scam

 

Ann_2006@hotmail.de