(Note:All that is written in italic i have excerpted .. Comments a, b , c etc and the conclusion are my own View)
The Capitalistic Crisis (2008) has been a political disaster for the US Republicans and liberal Streams in general. Many liberals reduced the economic downturn to George W Bush Policy, and many republicans joint the opposing Democrats in their 2008/2009 presidential and Congressional Elections Campaigns. Just before we start Investigating the Crisis, one should bear in mind; that the Liberal Globalization has been stimulating the fast and vast Growth in third World Countries. It has been also boosting the international Demand through lower Prices and stronger Supply. Republicans traditionally lead and advocate the Globalization of Liberalism, and are to be considered as the Dynamic Power of World Trade, Prosperity and Growth in the last three Decades (dominantly since Reagan’s time)
A just Tractate would relatively require some important Key Questions to be answered:
When did the Crisis begin (Its Nature and Synchronizations)?
A joint Report of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five United Nations regional commissions (Economic Commission for Africa (ECA), Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA)), tell;
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presented by the IMF published (October 2008) the following Report:
1.
2.
3. Advanced
4. Emerging
5. Latin America and the
6. Emerging
7.
8. Sub-Saharan
9.
March 24, 2009 by GlobalCrisisNews.com
Global trade will shrink by 9 percent this year in the most devastating collapse since World War II, the World Trade Organization said Monday. According to the latest report, the developed nations will be hit with a nearly 10 per cent decrease, whereas developing nations will only see their exports fall between 2-3 per cent. Despite richer nations seeing a bigger decline, the poor countries will be affected more, given their bigger dependency on such trade.
International Monetary Fund says world economic growth will fall to 0.5% in 2009, the lowest rate in more than 60 years.
2009 financial showdown subside
The IMF, a global economic organization of 185 countries, said economic growth across the world will fall to just 0.5% in 2009 from 3.4% in 2008. Financial markets are expected to remain under stress - despite a cornucopia of credit-easing actions - until investors and consumers gain confidence that policy actions can help improve market conditions.
In advanced countries, including the United States, the euro-zone nations, Japan, Canada and the United Kingdom, gross domestic product is expected to shrink by 2%. IMF said a vicious cycle of plummeting asset values, decreasing household wealth and sinking consumer demand will result in the first contraction of total advanced economies' GDP in the post-World War II era.
Even booming emerging and developing economies are feeling the pains of the global recession. China, India, the Middle East and Brazil will grow a combined 3.25% in 2009, down considerably from 6.25% growth last year. Falling export demand, lower commodity prices and financial constraints will lead to the slowdown.
Comment (a)
The assumption that Trade will shrink by 9%, in 2009 hitting developed Countries with 10% must be studied carefully. Given the fact that developed Countries Output is expected to shrink in 2009 from 1 to -2.0, and from 6.3 to 3.3 in emerging and developing Nations (0.5% world wide), and given the fact that growth is strictly depending on Trade in according to the reporting and assuming Institutions themselves, the claim that world Trade will shrink by 9% (10% in developed nations) seems to be quite conditional and dependent. The published Data don’t also support the Assumption; that the world output will necessarily shrink by exactly 2.9%. It is also not proper; that the output will fall to -1.6 in the
2. Why is the World Economy facing such hard and uncertain times?
a. The mentioned Report published by the WESS 2008 says:
After several years of robust growth, the world economy is now facing some serious challenges. In sustaining its brisk pace. The end of the housing bubble in the United States of America, as well as the unfolding credit crisis, the decline of the United States dollar vis-à-vis other major currencies, the persistence of large global imbalances and high oil prices will all threaten the sustainability of global economic growth in the coming years.
b. World Economic and Social Survey 2008:
According to the UN 2008 World Economic and Social Survey, economic insecurity arises from the exposure of Individuals, communities and countries to adverse events, and from their inability to cope with and recover from the downside losses. The risk and threats vary from community to community; in advanced countries, they have been associated with a significant rise in inequality, a hollowing out of middle-class lifestyles and reduced welfare protection. Elsewhere, economic shocks and premature deindustrialization have raised fears of an insufficiency of the formal sector jobs needed to accommodate an expanding urban population. In still other places, food insecurity has given rise to political discontent and increased levels of personal insecurity.
These local concerns have been compounded by new global threats. Unregulated financial markets and international capital flows are currently threatening economic livelihoods across the world economy. Climate change imposes the threat of greater local environmental damage and increasingly destructive natural disasters.
The attention brought to the presence of these heightened economic risks and compounded threats has often been met with the response that the forces behind them are autonomous and irresistible, and beyond our collective political control.
March 24, 2009 by GlobalCrisisNews.com
The WTO warned against protectionism which will eat on worldwide efforts to save the economy and prolong the current difficult scenario.
Comment (b)
I am absolutely not surprised by the ambiguous UN WESS Report, for the UN cares about own Budget much more than it does about the Prosperity of the World. The UN looks like so many pastors or Imams (Muftis), who care about own stomach much more than they do about poor and hungry people, but still love them because they are the source of Many UN Institutions survival. Beautiful Words and enchanting Style is that WESS Introduction. Stuffs like the mentioned “economic insecurity arises from the exposure of Individuals, communities and countries to adverse events, and from their inability to cope with and recover from the downside losses” sound poetic. Amazing! But scientifically represent some ambiguous Generalizations. Such axiomatic introduction is neither a patent nor a new discovery. Some Parts of the report are interesting albeit seem to be self-evident to even school Children. Let us assume that the UN count with primitive and illiterate populations also. But even at this level seem to be overseeing some important factors also. It is true that some adverse Events are some how associated with inequality and threat of middle-class lifestyles, but not necessarily all are associated with reduced welfare. The dramatic crack down on financial Markets and international Capital Flows associating them with Threat of livelihoods can in no way be logically justified. On the contrary; financial Markets and Capital Flows have been enhancing Growth and income across the world in the last two decades. What should Capital do? Should money remain frozen behind Seas? It could be somehow relevant (in some rich Societies) to discuss Capital volatility and over sea immigration of Jobs and companies, but on such a level the UN would lose its Universality, for it was founded to be general and international. Elsewhere the WESS associate adverse events with deindustrialization and shrank urban Population life, Food insecurity etc. In that respect we join the WESS with full agreement, but although still don’t see a direct link to Liberalization and Capital Flow. It would be helpful to research Links to Mismanagement and dictatorship, bearing in mind that Diagnosis somehow worth studying, but Conclusions mentioned in the Report have been mostly arbitrary and illogically inserted. To make the Topic Charisma credible and more attractive the WESS jumps like an Arabic Horse further to the climate Changes to rustle some more Conclusions. Studying the report politically (from a different aspect); we find a direct Link between the Stormy UN-Crisis Reports, and the political polemic that has been threatening the UN Institutions since the eighties. Liberal Streams arising in the
Proposed Solutions:
The World Economic and Social Survey (WESS) proposes:
What is needed is a strong "social contract" to help secure the spaces within which individuals, households and communities could pursue their day-to-day activities with a reasonable degree of predictability and stability, and with due regard for the aims and interests of others. This will require a more integrated and pragmatic approach to economic and social policy, one tailored to local threats and challenges, as well as more space for implementing counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies and greater international support for broader social protection schemes. It will also require a better link between approaches to local disaster management and development strategies, aimed particularly at the establishment of more diversified production structures for sustaining livelihoods in vulnerable countries. Dealing with economic insecurity in post-conflict situations requires radically different approaches to the provisioning of official development assistance and to the conduct of macroeconomic and social policies.
Comment(c)
What is a strong social Contract? A social Contract is usually approved by a Society. Individuals are the Contract Parties of which a Society consists, and to secure spaces within which Individuals can freely pursue their day-to-day Activities, a liberal Statute of determining and protecting some certain individual rights is prematurely needed, for some supposedly implicated individual rights and freedoms should not be exposed to a majority Decision (demarcated as a liberal democracy, that excludes all other false and illegitimate forms of Societies).
Given the mentioned characteristics concerning the Entity of social contracts, we may say; that Authoritarianism and dictatorships are the real Enemy of general human economic, cultural and political health. Sadly; there are enough dictators around the world, and those enjoy a full recognition and membership in the UN. The mentioned Dictators (whether Kings, military rulers or what so ever) have been mostly implementing a so called Underground economic Rules), which makes political and economic predictability relatively impossible. On the other hand; the mentioned Dics and Kings have been behind almost every conflict in the post WWII eras. Based on almost all the known social contract Theories, Kings and Dics are asocial political forces. Somehow have been the greatest Enemies of Free markets, and prove a very strong commitment to protectionism, because free markets shrink political authoritarianism and weaken their racist legacies. The idealistic call for a broader social protection Schemes and the recall of Keynesian Macroeconomics and development tools represent the rhapsody of a triumphing UN dancing in the very center of the Crisis. The turn over in the economic policy in rich Countries, support what some liberals and advocates of free markets considered to be on behalf of the poor in developing States and on behalf of companies in rich Countries also. The last could be more helpful for the Governments than expensive workers and bottom classes. The workers dominate the scene in rich Countries today, seeking a short range solution for unemployment and provisional social threats. But soon will realize; that this wouldn’t help the general health in the long run. So the rich Countries workers and third world Dics share a common interest. On the other hand, (influenced by alarmed rich Countries workers) the new trend demands a less intervention in third world countries affaires, and a beneficiary relation to all states. This can be helpful in the short run, but threats to turn the development upside down also, leading to a more disastrous turn. Generally speaking; it lies in the interest of Rich Countries and poor societies in dictatorial States to keep expanding openness of markets, with less possible intervention or protectionism aimed and championed by idealists and Authoritarians around the Globe.
March 24, 2009 by GlobalCrisisNews.com
WTO Sees Global Trade collapse by 9%
“Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from these economic doldrums,” WTO Director-general Pascal Lamy said in a statement. “In London G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unite in moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionist measure which will render global recovery efforts less effective,” Lamy said, referring to the upcoming Group of 20 summit scheduled for early April. Just two months ago, the WTO forecast a reduction in global trade this year of just 2.8 per cent.
http://www.globalcrisisnews.com/general/wto-sees-global-trade-collapse-by-9/id=680/
May 8th, 2008 -
He said: “The reasons why we must conclude the round this year are visible to all of us. The WTO can provide part of the solution.”
After turbulence in world financial markets, rocketing food prices had created new pressures and fuelled food riots in some countries heavily dependent on food imports.
The
Lamy said it was important to reach a deal this year and do away with trade distorting barriers that stifled food production and new investment particularly in developing countries.
He said: “This is a very tight schedule, but it is still doable.”
A meeting of trade ministers was planned later this month in
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/world-news/doha-deal-can-help-resolve-food-crisis-wto_10046246.html
Comment (d)
The WTO represented a more realistic, expletive and explanatory proposition based on factual world economic status. With this statement and other reported liberalization efforts, the WTO Universality appears to be more realistic than ever before. Its reports and analysis comprise (in details) the whole world, and contribute to the general health of the world economics, as well as for a peaceful advance in the international Relations. Just and Faire international Relation can not be more or less than a Free and open international Market and political Structure. So the world Markets openness to Trade grant a freedom of demand and supply, providing free choices and free access right to all. So the WTO recipe to cut Taxes is the right response to rising food and other commodities prices. Those who try to integrate Monopoly and protectionism labeling them as a social political Issues, can not jump over the facts; that such kind of policies are practically asocial in a world of interdependency and overcome spaces. The WTO Members have pledged and affirmatively stated (in the
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The United States Department of Agriculture ( www.ers.usda.gov ) published a Report concerning the 2008/2009 world economic Crisis and its meaning for U.S. Agriculture, telling: The weakening of global demand because of emerging recessions and declining economic growth result in reduced export demand and lower agricultural commodity prices, compared with those in 2008. These, in turn, reduce
agricultural exports, prices, and farm income in 2007 and 2008 put
But the USDA proposed solution sounds less convincing. The Department says: The main long-term issue is how and whether the fundamental imbalances that created the conditions for the global crisis will be reduced or maintained. This process will depend to a large degree on whether exchange rates are realigned. If, in the longer term, the dollar and other trade deficit countries’ currencies depreciate, then imbalances will be reduced and economic growth will resume at sustainable rates. If exchange rates are not realigned, then the trade and savings imbalances will remain.
If the long-term outcome is a depreciated dollar and the fundamental realignment of global exchange rates, then
will be strengthened by increases in agricultural export volumes, agricultural commodity prices, and farm incomes. If the long-term outcome is an appreciation of the dollar but no fundamental realignment of exchange rates, the high dollar will become a constraint on
Comment (e)
Mentioned USDA Proposition seems to be very problematic in many Ways, because depreciation of currencies goes hand in hand with inflation, and therefore depreciation can not help in the long run. If the analysis assumes depreciation without Inflation, a legitimate logical plan for such development should be benchmarked also, which is necessary to mute anti American Experts who constantly accuse the USA of depreciating the Dollar to make Debts Payments less burdening. Demand on agricultural Exports has been getting internationally weaker because of rising food prices pushed by higher production cost, and the last has been driven by increase in Oil Prices. A realignment of exchange rates could be helpful, but even this is depending on the state and Stability of own Currency. Now many Governments around the World bind their Currency to the US Dollar, which makes the US Money more stabile, secured and stimulate the leadership of the
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IMF (as mentioned in the report of January 28, 2009) reports:
Global monetary and fiscal policies are providing substantial support. Faced with a quickly deteriorating outlook and subsiding inflation pressures, central banks in the advanced economies have taken strong actions to cut policy rates and improve credit provision. Policy interest rates have been brought down substantially in recent months, especially as inflation pressures subsided, although falling inflation expectations are mitigating the impact on real interest rates. Relative to the November WEO Update projections, short-term market interest rates in 2009 are assumed to be about ¾ percentage point lower in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom, in line with market expectations. Central banks in emerging economies are also moving to ease their policy stance and improve market liquidity.
To combat the downturn, many governments have announced fiscal packages to boost their economies. Consequently, unlike the November WEO Update, the new projections incorporate a substantial fiscal expansion. Specifically, fiscal stimulus in G-20 countries in 2009 is projected to be 1.5 percent of GDP. Deficits are also expected to be boosted by the operation of automatic stabilizers and the impact on revenues of sharp asset price declines, as well as the costs of financial sector rescues. As a result, the fiscal balance in advanced economies is projected to deteriorate by 3¼ percentage points to -7 percent of GDP in 2009
Strong and complementary policy efforts are needed to rekindle activity. Policy efforts so far have addressed the immediate threats to financial stability (through liquidity support, deposit insurance, and recapitalization schemes), but they have done little to resolve the uncertainty about the long-term solvency of financial institutions. The process of loss recognition and restructuring of bad loans is still incomplete. Therefore, financial sector policies should focus on advancing this process by forcing credible and coordinated loan loss recognition and by providing public support to the viable financial institutions. Such policies should be supported by measures to resolve insolvent banks and set up public agencies to dispose of the bad debts, including possibly through a "bad bank" approach, while safeguarding public resources. Monetary policy remains an important policy lever. The projections incorporate a substantial easing in policy rates, although the effectiveness of interest rate cuts to support activity is likely to be constrained as long as financial conditions remain disrupted. With interest rates approaching zero in several major countries, central banks are exploring alternative policy approaches that rely on using their balance sheets to ease monetary conditions further. The focus should be on unlocking key (high-spread, low-liquidity) credit markets.
In current circumstances, the timely implementation of fiscal stimulus across a broad range of advanced and emerging economies must provide a key support to world growth.3 Given that the current projections are predicated on strong and coordinated policy actions, any delays will likely worsen growth prospects. Countries that have policy room should make a firm commitment to do more if the situation deteriorates further. Fiscal stimulus packages should rely primarily on temporary measures and be formulated within medium-term fiscal frameworks that ensure that the envisaged buildup in fiscal deficits can be reversed as economies recover and that fiscal sustainability can be attained in the face of demographic pressure. Countries that have more limited fiscal space should focus their efforts on supporting the financial sector and credit flows, while ensuring that budgets adjust to less favorable external conditions. However, it will be important to avoid cutbacks in foreign aid in response to tightening budget constraints, lest hard-won economic gains in developing countries are lost.
Comment (f)
A neo liberal governmental intervention is being proposed and advocated by the IMF. The stimulus Packages have been approved by the EX Republican administration and by the winning Democrats (2009). Thus far, Left political barking didn’t change the fact; that the solution to emerging Challenges remains a neo liberal monetary policy. As mentioned in the IMF Report; several stimulus Packages have been proposed by developed Governments world wide. Example:
In according to some western agencies:
November 27th, 2008
The European Union Wednesday called on member states to help the bloc avoid a deep recession by mobilizing 200 billion euros ($260 billion) in extra spending and tax cuts. ”Exceptional times call for exceptional measures,” said the head of the EU’s executive, European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso.
According to the plan outlined on Wednesday, governments are encouraged to improve their countries’ competitiveness by lowering labor taxes and boost private consumption through temporary cuts in value added tax (VAT).
In response to the EU Appeal, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has thrown her support behind a plan to pump up to €130 billion into the European Union economy. The government in
Series of fiscal and financial stimulus actions have been taken worldwide, but benefiting from the crisis, the left trends propaganda gained wider Sympathy to become an important part of the international Crisis 2008/2009. They criticize well, but when it comes to concepts and solutions they have nothing to show except red eyed actions. To face such a political Challenge in the mentioned
The Bush administration says it ain't so, blaming high food prices on higher demand from
Comment (h)
Each of the mentioned Prognoses must be taken seriously. High Oil Prices and Subsidies are some important factors. But stronger growing demand in third world countries because of population increase and advance in the general growth plays an important role also. Biofuels have been mere words in the past years. When Oil Prices rise, speculations experts and entrepreneurs propagate some alternates plans enlarging rumors that would influence the market, and help make Oil Prices go down. Biofuels stand on the production Agendas when Oil Prices become too high. In that sense, Biofuels would be a mere result anyway, and therefore can’t be treated as a reason or cause. Biofuels Industry is too young and exorbitant, and can not be a lasting solution. The fact that despite the downturn in Oil Prices 2009, food prices remain much higher than before (in many Countries around the world), refute the claim that Biofuels are real and decisive influence factor.
For emerging economies, a stronger economic framework developed in recent years will help them avoid the shock of serious, painful declines of past recessions. Developing economies, too, are better prepared to deal with the current recession than in than in years past, though high poverty levels and reliance on commodity exports will still sting throughout the downturn, said the report.
To help reverse the economy's course, several nations around the world with advanced economies have enacted fiscal stimulus plans, which could cost as much as 1.5% of advanced economies' GDP in 2009. The
But the IMF said stimulus packages may not be enough. Countries around the globe should consider strong and complementary policy actions that help to fix the financial sector meltdown. IMF recommended a massive coordinated effort to buy up troubled assets, a policy that has received much attention in advanced economies but wavering support in recent months.
First Published: January 28, 2009: 9:00 AM ET
In a recent Update the IMF publishes the following Report:
Inflation pressures are subsiding.
Sluggish real activity and lower commodity prices have dampened inflation pressures (Figure 5, view: Data Figure 5). In the advanced economies, headline inflation is expected to decline from 3½ percent in 2008 to a record low ¼ percent in 2009, before edging up to ¾ percent in 2010. Moreover, some advanced economies are expected to experience a period of very low (or even negative) consumer price increases. In emerging and developing economies, inflation is also expected to subside to 5¾ percent in 2009 and 5 percent in 2010, down from 9½ percent in 2008.
Conclusion:
The IMF, the WTO and other economic institutions introduced some more or less logical Analysis and plausibly proposed solutions. Important to note; that none of them speak of a link between the former
I wouldn’t affirm that the invasion of
Before I proceed scanning the political Background, I would like to draw attention to the pure economic Aspect of the Crisis:
Reports and Analysis treat mostly Results (shedding light on the actual state of the economics) with very low focus on the Genesis or economic background. Some Studies mix Genesis with Justification (Events with aftermaths/Cause with caused) considering them all as factors or one and same phenomenon. But zooming in, we find out that production technology, Demand, supply etc change gradually. They generally don’t rise or fall at once, and are predictable. Surprising was the sudden rise in the Price of Oil, but with no anticipating sudden big Rise or fall in Demand and Supply, which raises so many Suspicions and Questions that have never been satisfactorily solved yet (a 10 Millions production decrease can not lead to a 4 times increase in the Price. The Irony is; that decreased production remains a matter of fact today, amid a price fall to $40). Crisis in the Housing Markets, soaring Interest rates, Car Industries etc are all outcomes of the jumped Barrel Price last year, and still suffer of potential escalation being predicted in according to last year’s Circumstances that didn’t change that much. A sudden shock to shareholders, Car Producers and managers from many different economic Sectors, whose predictions and Market Views didn’t grow immune enough to have such uncountable and unexpected surprises under control. A black Hole has been that sudden and irregular increase in the price of Oil. Many Experts compare it to the Crisis of 1973, when rich Oil Countries of the Arabic World used Oil as political Weapons, embargoing Israel’s Sponsors and cutting over 5 Million Barrels of their daily productions. Expensive Oil made Car Industries suffer (2008/2009), and so many Workers have lost their Jobs. That is the reason why politicians called for the invention of alternate Energy Engines. McCain (the republican Nominee 2008) proposed a high budget and Awards for the development of competitive Battery Systems, and his Opponent Obama did same thing when repeatedly affirmed the need for alternate Energy Systems. That is the way usually evolutive Capitalism behaves, when Stagnation strikes and recessions prevail.
The Call for New Production Technology made Car Industries sell great amounts of shares to foreign Countries, especially to rich Oil Countries (a good way to make involved Oil Countries care more about Stability of Oil Prices being a primary condition for the Stability of Car Markets they already share). Buying Car Industries is a commitment to keep Oil Price stabile and acceptable.
As the world biggest Oil Consumer, Behaviorally and economically we view also a
The price of Oil was about $3 a barrel before the Israeli Arabs War of 1973. The Israeli defeat in the War of 1973 led to a dramatic Price increase ($12,21),which didn’t happen in the war of 1967, when
In 1979-1980, the Iran-Iraq War led to some further increase (from $14 in 1978 to $35 in 1981). The supportive
Uncertainty emerged in 1990 through lower production associated with the invasion of
1997 OPEC increased production by 2.5 Million Barrels, to help lower the prices. Upward again in early 1999, and in response to, OPEC reduced production by 1.719 Million Barrels. As the Production (1998/1999) dropped again, Barrel price moved to $25. 2001 increases in non-OPEC production influenced the price again, and the OPEC responded with production cuts. 2003, the Venezuelan production became reduced, and OPEC increased quotas in an attempt to keep Stability of the Supply. Little later the invasion of
Through this quick preface we understand, that not mere Wars, but Wars and other Circumstances rule the price of Oil (Relativism). Example: the War of 1967 and the Iran-Iraq War didn’t have that big impact, because of an Arabic weakness contributing to western predominance in the case of 1967, and on the other hand because of actions taken by supportive Oily Gulf States during the Saddam War on Iran. So the nature of War (depending on who is the superior party is) plus accompanying Circumstances (Rumors and fear associations) play (positively or negatively) a decisive role in making it influential or not. It became almost a law during the cold War; that the more Anti Capitalism Forces grow up threatening to take control of Oil market, the more Market escalation and price increases become expected (if not real). So the latest Challenge began with the Invasion of Kuwait, but the vacillation of Oil Price ended in Stability after the interfering Forces restored confidence. The following Iraqi status to sell Oil in exchange for food, and the regional Threat represented by creating ties to Iran through restored relation to the neighboring Syria, made it possible for the three neighbors (Iraq Syria and Iran) to build own Alliance (A troika that would expand influences attracting anti western Forces across the region, and thereafter weaken the Israeli Dominance). On the other Hand, the rapidly growing
Illegal Business Makers, Left Streams, Dictators and Kings led to the Crisis of 2007/2008. But soon some European Turbulences Sponsors realized that they could become the biggest losers with much less perspectives.
Some economic Experts view in the decrease of Oil Price a decrease in
Observing the market state between 2006 and 2008, we indicate some meaningless flow fluctuation in Oil market (Demand and Supply). In contrast to the economic Track we view greater political instability and growing tension in international relations. Some of the important political factors that led to the price escalation are:
1. The launched War against
2. the tension and out of control growing insurgency in
3. the mentioned 1 and 2 led to a bigger challenge represented by
4. Attracted
This beside so many other politically encouraging motivators made Oil Market Security more vulnerable. Given such Considerations, the rich Oil Countries became encouraged to challenge the market also.
The decrease in Oil Prices happened after the emerging Democrats promised to open dialog to
Anyway, the temporarily declared dialog between
Economic Globalization requires basic political Globalization of necessary Rules, and economic Freedoms require a satisfactory amount of political Freedom also. The more economic Freedoms a country has the less governmental intervention and control is, and that simply opposes the nature of Authoritarianism and Dictatorship. So the plan to invest and make use of resources in the competition Field became perceived (by dictators) as violation of their State Sovereignty. To stop the process of Globalization and secure their Survivals, Dictators, Kings and authoritarian Governments in general have been looking for alternate Alliances that would fill out the Gap caused by the collapse of the Soviet Sponsorship. Shanghai Meeting, the Arabic League, the African Union, some Russian movements, Hugo Chavez, Morales, the North Korean atomic program, the Iranian revolution and nuclear projects etc are some of the Attempts to mobilize an alternate political protection shield, and must be taken very seriously, for they represent a real threat to the liberal World. Problem is: the
That miserable political Process is accompanied by a corresponding economic Challenge. Since the Collapse of the
I wouldn’t propagate the Theory that says: Authoritarian Characters subject themselves without any conditions to their authoritarian rulers. But it seems to be a matter of fact, that the long experienced authoritarian Regimes learnt how to make use of their sowed authoritarianism when regimes become at threat. Example: the Islamic oppositions became directed by their repressing authoritarian rulers to operate against newly born liberal forces, for they represent a common enemy to both. So Arabic Governments preferred not to crack down directly on liberal forces (because they count with international concern), but their secret forces adopted and opened new High Ways for hostile Islamists to target liberal intellectuals and free movements. In that method authoritarian Arabic Governments used to justify their iron dictatorial rule letting common enemies strike each other, and so, many liberal Intellectuals became killed by newly tolerated Islamic forces (those with experiences in secret services understand well how it works). But it is important to note: that the Republican Administration has detected that dirty business too early, opened doors for NGO to take part in the international political process, backed and integrated every liberal movement launching a conditionless assaults on Governments under which crimes took place. A necessary effort to access the cultural Ground trying to break out with states Monopoly, for Globalization of Cultures can not be treated a part from political Globalization.
G w Bush fair deal to democratize Governments, end the Israeli Palestinian Conflict and encourage freedom of Markets and Investments serves local people interest and help western Governments confront the new market Challenges. It is the only lasting long term solution to the local Arabic Development, and to the fitness and health of liberal Capitalism Industries.
It is in the interest of the people of the
Strategic forecasts:
Now a day, the world is in urgent daily need to almost 80 million Barrels. With forth population growth the daily Energy Consumption will extend, while Production Capacity is becoming much lower in Oil producing Countries world wide. In the near Future Oil will become very expensive, which would make it very hard for contemporary Oil Engines Industries to survive. It is of course possible to develop alternate Energy Resources, but mentioned resources are unfeasible on military levels. Tanks and heavy Tracks require diesel, and Air Force can not competitively function with electric, sunlight or hydrogen Energies. The world largest Producers are in the gulf, and Oil is expected to be lately (after it runs out in the world) available there. That is why it is important for the
Sooner or later, the temporarily narcotized rather latent Crisis will wake up, and the pressured Oil Barrel will explode the Market Silence again. The Decreasing Oil production will attract international Powers over and over again, and the option for Rule Proxies will become possibly bigger than before. Those who believe that the Crisis has ended through a black democratic leadership in the White House must be the greatest Idiots of the whole lying future Challenges. So the manipulating Forces will emerge helpless, and the real bail-out plan for a stabile Middle East sponsored and protected by a strong western World led by the United States would be that proposed republican one.
Some bolded crises Aspects are to be demarcated:
A. An economic Aspect:
1. A general international Crisis in which decreased Oil Production represents the pane of whole temporarily escaped challenges (just take the relativity of the word “decreased” into account).
2. Vibrant balance of Demand and Supply subjected to many different factual and psychological urgencies
3. A special western economic Crisis produced by the rise of new market invaders
A political Aspect:
1. Uncertainty over the future western Control of Oil Market. This has been driven by so many psychological and factual factors such as:
1.1 The military Growth of Iran
1.2. The adaptation of effective new Resistance Methods in
1.3 The emergence of some hostile Forces across the region aiming to end the American Dominance
1.4 The foggy American Future in
1.5 The weakened Israeli Position and the weakened reliability on the Jewish State
1.6 Uncertainty over the power to solve Disputes and secure Future Markets through mere military Forces
1.7 The clear and evident Failure of the peace Process in the
Undisputed Facts:
1. The Western World can not face the new market Invaders through Protectionism, unless protectionism becomes a counter response or procedure. Unjustified Protectionism would create and unfold political and ideological Contradictions within the western System, and make the Liberal Institutions lose face. Free Trade and Freedom of Markets have been western Values, and are the economic Aspect of political Freedom and liberal Democracy.
2. The Future of the western World is depending on who will win the alternate Energy Revolution, win the new markets and take over the rest of Oil Fields. In both Cases the
3. The Western World can not give up
4. To win the region and to become economically and politically an accepted partner, the western World will have to:
4.1. Stop the Israeli Aggression and put an End to the Israeli Settlements.
4.2. The western World will have to mute the propagated Iranian call for a total destruction of
4.3. So the western World will have to curb
It is easy for the western World to put Pressure on
If the new Democratic Administration will keep cherishing Israel, suck Oil through appointed tyrants and Dictators and act in according to that past cold War Agenda without finding a real solution to the Arabic Israeli Conflict, Opposing Islamists will grow stronger, Terror Groups will have more resources and the involvement of Rivals and hostile foreign powers will gain a wider legitimacy and gravitation. So the American and western World will in that case lose but win a race to the bottom.
5. The only Way to overcome cheap invaders is to encourage lower production cost investments in the new markets. The Uprising western Workers need to be well enlightened about the fact, that protection is a monopoly of own Market, but can’t win external Trade, or open new horizons for economic Development.
Open Trade and globalizing market will lead to lower Prices and cheaper labor on the beginning, but in the long run, the growth of cheap Invaders will slow down, and the qualitatively better and more experienced Industries will prevail. The protectionist response to Challenges is wrong. Protectionism is based on nationalism, and Nationalism would turn the wheels back to Socialism to end in a nihilistic disaster.
In that sense, WTO and other liberal Institutions are the good and fair future deal for all.